Company Fair Valuation Considering ESG Factor (Case Study: Pt Pertamina Geothermal Energy, Tbk)

The increments of environmental, social, and governance-based investments have been seen recently by institutions or retail investors.  The growth has increased rapidly since 2012.  Some research gives a positive correlation between the ESG factor represented by ESG rating and company performance. PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy, Tbk. (PGEO), IPO on 24th February 2023 has outstanding ESG performance.  It was audited by Sustainable Fitch and got the highest second rank, 77 out of 100 points.  Not only is it exceptional ESG performance, but it also has excellent business performance.  PGEO started its journey of geothermal utilization in 1974, upon discovering 70 geothermal areas in Indonesia as a sub-business of PT Pertamina EP.  PGEO was established in 2006 to continue the efforts to produce clean and environmentally friendly energy, and as of now, it has contributed 82% of the installed geothermal energy capacity in Indonesia.  It has the world’s most extensive geothermal installed capacity by December 2021 and promises to expand even more significantly in its prospectus.  Investors should consider their value rather than positive sentiment as an investment decision.  Then, this study determines whether the PGEO price is undervalued or overvalued considering their project expansion and ESG factor.  This study utilizes secondary data from prospectuses, financial statements, annual reports, sustainability reports, company-published documents, and data from IDX.co.id and stockbit.com.  The data was gathered and processed to understand the need to expand, analyze its financial performance, and value the company.  The author considers company ESG performance to develop financial projections.  To fulfill company promises in expansion and stay sustained by adding more production, injection, and startup wells, it needs 1.588.612.527 USD using ESG-based financing.  The historical financial performance of PGEO is quite good, but the investor should be careful about its liquidity since the current liability is more significant than its current asset.  Based on the calculation of absolute valuation using discounted cash flow, the value of each share of PGEO is Rp12.686,00, which is undervalued, and its IPO price is Rp875,00.  Based on relative valuation using PER to its peers and average industry, PGEO’s price is overvalued.  The PGEO price that pars with the industry average is Rp490,00.  The author can determine the fundamental value of PGEO.